Box-Office Algorithm Predicts Revenue From Movie Screenplay

Imagine a world where Hollywood producers could predict, with scientific precision, the box office revenue a movie will generate just by reading the screenplay. A new forecasting model devised by a trio of marketing professors from Wharton and NYU promises to deliver something like that. Among their findings: action movies with multidimensional conflicts are the most surefire investments, and horror films the riskiest.

Read the full story at Freakonomics at The New York Times.

In a paper describing their model, they write that “a higher movie budget tend[s] to increase the movie’s box office, but at a diminishing rate. Thus, throwing money at a script does not always generate a blockbuster movie.”