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UP's battleground



Here is the our analysis of the remaining 33 seats in UP.

Allahabad
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Shyama Charan Gupt
Nand Gopal Gupta 'Nandi'
Reoti Raman Singh
Keshari Devi Patel

Who won in 2009
Party
Kunwar Rewati Raman Singh
SP

BJP won this seat in 1999, when Murli Manohar Joshi (he has won this seat thrice) defeated Reoti Raman Singh by 70K votes, since then BJP had been on a downward trend.
In 2009, BJP got only 11%, and with Rewati babu still quite strong here this is a tough seat for BJP. BJP should have opted for any strong candidate, rather importing Shyama Charan Gupta, who has been losing election for quite some time; it was in 1991 that he lost for the first time on the BJP’s ticket.
BJP’s only HOPE is Brahmin voter which are 4 lakh in number.
My Take: SP will win, BJP will be second

Ambedkar Nagar

BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Hariom Pandey
Ashok Singh
Ram Murti Verma
Rakesh Pandey

Who won in 2009
Party
Rakesh Pandey
BSP

BJP has never won this seat which was earlier known as Akbarpur. The best they came here was in 1996, when their candidate Bechan Ram, lost by some 24K votes. This has been a BSP stronghold, they have been winning this seat since 1996, with Mayawati winning it in 1998,99 and 2004.
BJP is going with a new face and decided to overlook VHP leader Ram Vilas Vedanti.
My Take: BSP will win followed by BJP
Amethi
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Smriti Irani
Rahul Gandhi
Dharmendra Pratap Singh

Who won in 2009
Party
Rahul Gandhi
INC

My Take: Congress will win followed by BJP

Azamgarh
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Ramakant Yadav
Arvind Jaiswal
Mulayam Singh
Shah Alam Urf Guddu Jamali

The ideal ground for Mulayam Singh (Yadav and Muslims vote bank), BJP was lucky to win this seat in 2009, due to the communal lining. That time a lot of Yadavs went with the local goon Ramakant Yadav and ensured his victory against Akbar Ahmad Dampy.  
My Take: SP will win followed by BJP

Bahraich

BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Savitri Bai Phule
Kamal Kishore
Shabbir Ahmed Balmiki
Dr. Vijay Kumar

Who won in 2009
Party
Kamal Kishor
INC

The last two elections ( 2009 and 2012) have seen a very close fight between all the four parties. Kamal Kishor is losing a lot of ground and a very smart candidate choice by BJP will ensure this seat to BJP. The dalit sadvi, Savitri Bai Phule is a sitting MLA and defeated BSP candidate by a huge margin in 2012.
My Take: BJP will win followed by BSP

Ballia
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Bharat Singh
Sudha Rai
Neeraj Shekhar
Veerendra Kumar pathak

Who won in 2009
Party
Neeraj Shekhar
SP

This seat is a stronghold of SP, BJP has never won this seat and I would be surprised if former minister Bharat Singh manage to win this seat.
My Take: SP will win

Bansgaon
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Kamlesh Paswan
Dr Sanjay Kumar
Gorakh Prasad Paswan
Sadal Prasad

Who won in 2009
Party
Kamlesh Paswan
BJP

BJP will retain this seat

Basti
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Harish Dwivedi
Sanjay Jaiswal
Brij Kishore Singh
Ram Prasad Choudhary

Who won in 2009
Party
Arvind Kumar Chaudhary
BSP

This seat is a BSP stronghold and will remain so 
My Take: BSP, followed by SP

Bhadohi
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Virendra Singh Mast
Sartaj Imam
Seema Misra
Rakesh Dhar Tripathi

Who won in 2009
Party
Gorakh Nath Pandey
BSP

My Take: SP will win followed by BSP

Chandauli
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Mahendra Nath Pandey
Tarun Patel
Ram Kishun
Anil Kumar Mourya

Who won in 2009
Party
Ramkishun
SP

Once a BJP’s stronghold (1991-98), BJP can win this eastern UP seat in a Modi Wave.
My Take: BJP, followed by SP

Deoria
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Kalraj Mishra
Sabha Kunwar Kushwaha
Baleshwar Yadav
Niyaz Khan

Who won in 2009
Party
Gorakh Prasad Jaiswal
BSP

Bad candidate choice by BJP, it would have been better if Kalraj Mishra(sitting MLA from Lucknow) opted for Brahmins dominated Unnao.

My Take: SP will win, and if BJP win this seat, respect Modi Wave!!

Domariyaganj
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Jagdambika Pal
Vasundhara Kumari Jay Pratap Singh
Mata Prasad Pandey
Mohammad Mukeem

Who won in 2009
Party
Jagdambika Pal
INC

My Take: BJP will win

Faizabad

BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Lallu Singh
Dr Nirmal Khatri
Tilakram Verma
Jitendra Singh Urf Bablu

Who won in 2009
Party
Dr. Nirmal Khatri
INC

In this land of Ram the main fight is between Congress and SP. Last time Nirmal Khatri got 28.20%, and was followed by SP's Mitrasen (21.00%) and Lallu Singh (20.20%). BSP's Bablu bhaiya is a local don, but at the same time not liked by Dalits in general, and this will help Congress. This is one of the few seats where Congress is in the fight.  Lallu Singh even lost the 2012 Vidhan Sabha election, he is depended upon Modi wave, and other campaigners, like Sangeet Singh Som. 
My Take: SP/Congress


Ghazipur
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Manoj Sinha
Mohammed Maqsood Khan
Shiv Kanya Kuchwaha
Kailash Nath Singh Yadav

Who won in 2009
Party
Radhe Mohan Singh
SP

Another SP’s stronghold seat, where BJP will be riding high on Modi Wave, this eastern UP seat is too close to call. 

Ghosi
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Harinarayan Rajbhar
Rashtra Kunwar Singh
Balkishan Chauhan
Dara Singh Chouhan

Who won in 2009
Party
Dara Singh Chauhan
BSP

BJP has never won this seat which has become the BSP’s stronghold. Harinarayan Rajbhar is an ex minister, who left BJP and joined Kalyan Singh. 
My Take: BSP will win

Gonda
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Kirti Vardhan Singh
Beni Prasad Verma
Nandita Shukla
Akbar Ahemad Dampi

Who won in 2009
Party
Beni Prasad Verma
INC

Kirti Vardhan Singh belong to the Royal family of Manikapur and is the son of Anand Singh, he came second on BSP's ticket in 2009 and won the seat on SP ticket in 2004. . Last time, in 2009, when Beni Prasad Verma won from here, he was against 3 Thakurs candidates. There are around 17 lakh voters in the constituency in which Thakurs, Brahmins and Muslims have equal ratio. This seat has always faced an emotional war between Brahmins and Thakurs.  With a high number of Brahmins voter, Nandita Shukla has a good chance.  She is a wife of late Ganshyam Shukla, BJP's Brahmins face till his accident/murder. Peace Partys Masood Alam Khan is also trying to woo the Muslim voters, last time Peace party got 12% of the votes. However, if ‘Akbar Ahemad Dampi’ and Peace party can manage to get muslim votes divided then BJP can win this seat.

My Take: Too close between SP and BJP.

Gorakhpur
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Yogi Aditya Nath
Ashtabhuja Tiwari
Rajmati Nishad
Rambhuaal Nishad

Who won in 2009
Party
Yogi Adityanath
BJP

My Take: BJP will win.

Jaunpur
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
K.P. Singh
Ravi Kishen
K.P Yadav
Subhash Pandey

Who won in 2009
Party
Dhananjay Singh
BSP

It would be interesting to see, if Mr. fixer Rajnath Singh can manage to get Dhananjay Singh support for BJP’s candidate. If, that happens add another seat for BJP. 
My Take: Three way fight between SP, BJP and Dhananjay Singh.

Kaiserganj

BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Brijbhushan Sharan Singh
Mukesh Srivastava
Vinod Kumar
Krishna Kumar Ojha

Who won in 2009
Party
Brijbhushan Sharan Singh
SP
Another Brahmin dominated seat, main fight is between BSP and BJP.
My Take: BJP, closely followed by BSP.

Kaushambi
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Vinok Sonkar
Mahendra Gautam
Shailendra Kumar
Suresh Pasi

Who won in 2009
Party
Shailendra Kumar
SP

My Take: Fight is between BSP and SP

Kushi Nagar
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Rajesh Pandey
R P N Singh
Radhey Shyam Singh
Sangam Mishra

Who won in 2009
Party
Ratanjit Pratap Narain Singh
INC

My Take:BJP will win

Lalganj
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Leelam Sonkar
Balibihari Babu
Doodhnath Saroj
Dr. Baliram

Who won in 2009
Party
Dr. Baliram
BSP

BJP has never won this seat and the best was in 1991 when their candidate lost by only 9K votes.

My Take: BSP will retain this seat

Machhlishahr

BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Ramcharitra Nishad
Tufani Nishad
Toofani Saroj
V.P. Saroj

Who won in 2009
Party
Tufani Saroj
SP

Once a BJP stronghold (till 1999), in 2004, BJP got around only 25.27%, which further eroded in 2009.  This constituency will see a three cornered fight between SP, BSP and BJP. SP has an upper hand, but MODI wave can turn this around for BJP.
My Take: SP/BJP

Maharajganj
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Pankaj Choudhary
Harsh Vardhan Singh
Kunwar Akhilesh Singh
Kashinath Shukla

Who won in 2009
Party
Harsh Vardhan
INC

Pankaj Choudhary is a old war-horse having won this seat three time from 1991-98.

My Take: BJP will win this seat

Mirzapur
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Anupriya Patel (Apna Dal)
Lalitesh Pati Tripathi
Surendra Patel
Samudra Bind

Who won in 2009
Party
Bal Kumar Patel
SP

My Take: Anupriya Patel (Apna Dal) will win 

Phulpur

BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Keshav Mourya
Mohammed Kaif
Dharamraj Singh Patel
Kapilmuni Karvaria

Who won in 2009
Party
Kapil Muni Karwariya
BSP
Another seat that BJP has never won in UP.
My Take: BSP is still very strong here

Pratapgarh
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Ratna Singh
Pramod Patel
Asif Nijamuddin Siddqi

Who won in 2009
Party
Rajkumari Ratna Singh
INC

My Take: Congress/SP

Robertsganj
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Chhote Lal Kharwar
Bhagwati Prasad Chaudhary
Pakauri Lal Kol
Shardaprasad

Who won in 2009
Party
Pakauri Lal
SP

My Take: SP

Salempur
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Ravindra Kushwaha
Bhola Pandey
Harvansh Sahai Kushwaha
Ravi Shankar Singh Urf Pappu
Who won in 2009
Party

Ramashankar Rajbhar
BSP






 My Take: Never won by BJP, this is a main battleground for SP and BSP

Sant Kabir Nagar
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Sharad Tripathi
Rohit Pandey
Bhaal Chand Yadav
Bheeshmashankar Tiwari Urf Kushal Tiwari

Who won in 2009
Party
Bhismshankar Alias Kushal Tiwari
BSP
BJP has a good chance, but then Kushal Tiwari is the son of eastern UP's strongman Hari Shankar Tiwari and will give him a good fight.
My Take: BJP/BSP

Shrawasti
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Daddan Mishra
Vinay Kumar Pandey
Atiq Ahmed
Lalji Verma

Who won in 2009
Party
Dr. Vinay Kumar "Vinnu" Pandey
INC

My Take: BJP will win

Sultanpur
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Varun Gandhi
Ameeta Singh
Shakil Ahmed
Pavan Pandey

Who won in 2009
Party
Dr. Sanjay Sinh
INC

My Take: BJP will win by a huge margin

Varanasi
BJP 2014 Candidate
Cong+ 2014 Candidate
SP 2014 Candidate
BSP 2014 Candidate
Narendra Bhai Modi
Ajai Rai
Surendra Singh Patel
Vijay Prakash Jaiswal

Who won in 2009
Party
Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi
BJP

My Take: BJP will win by a huge margin
 
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